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Iran Blasts Israel Ahead of Biden Trip, Suggests ‘Arab NATO’ Initiative Doomed to Fail_我的网站

一 |     　　作者：郑邮飞/F0284348、Z0010566/　　一德期货能源化工分析师　　要点速览版　　做多关键因素消失，甚至逐步进入过剩格局。　　短期价格在悲观情绪释放后仍存一定支撑。    Israel is the “main source” of instability and a driver of terrorism in the Middle East, and the “full support” that Washington continues to provide to Tel Aviv belies US claims of seeking peace for the region, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani has said.,“The Zionist regime is the main source of instability and a major driver of the spread of organized terrorism in the region. The full support of America for the regime is the compelling reason that invalidates the US government’s claims of pacifism,” Kanaani said, responding to an opinion piece penned by Joe Biden in the Washington Post over the weekend in which the US president touted his administration’s efforts to foster regional peace.,Iran Says Biden's Sanctions Policy Contradicts Stated Goal of Rescuing Nuclear DealYesterday, 12:50 GMT,Kanaani suggested that a stable Middle East will only be achieved “if the United States ends its divisive policies among the regional countries, stops the flow of weapons to the region, respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries, abandons the policy of unconditional support for the Zionist regime, and ends the policy of Iranophobia.”,Accusing the Biden administration of following his predecessor’s “failed maximum pressure policy,” the spokesperson also dismissed Biden’s comments about the US’s role in fighting regional terrorism, pointing to Washington’s January 2020 assassination of anti-terror commander Qasem Soleimani and the impact it had in strengthening Daesh (ISIS)*, al-Qaeda* and other terror groups.,In separate comments over the weekend, Kanaani warned the US against any plans to increase its presence in the Middle East, saying such a move could have “no other outcome but insecurity, instability and [the] spread of terrorism across the region.”,Commenting on US plans to forge a new regional air defense alliance between Israel and the Gulf oil kingdoms, Kanaani suggested that the US “comes up with such ideas without having a correct understanding of the region’s realities.”,US Reportedly Considers Lifting Ban on Sale of Offensive Arms to Saudi Arabia 11 July, 12:33 GMT,Arab NATO Doomed,The foreign ministry spokesman’s sentiments were echoed by Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament, who accused the US of serving as an “executor” of Israel’s wishes, and called such behavior a “historic and strategic mistake by the American president, which will end up being detrimental to the Biden government before anyone else.”,“All the evidence shows that [Biden’s regional trip] was arranged by the Zionists and that the American president is implementing the programs and projects of the Zionist regime, as the main enemy of the nations of the region, has designed,” Qalibaf alleged.,Separately on Monday, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps deputy commander for political affairs Yadollah Javani expressed confidence that US efforts to create an anti-Iranian “Arab NATO” would fail.,“When the United States and the Zionist regime and Saudi Arabia were at the peak of their power, the coalitions that they built to counter the Resistance Front and the Islamic Republic had no other result but failure," Javani said, citing attempts to crush the Houthis in Yemen, and the US-led proxy war in Syria, as examples.,“Despite spending trillions of dollars over these years…everyone saw they were defeated and today, the Resistance Front is more powerful than ever before,” Javani said. “Therefore, it is quite easy to predict the possible fate of the so-called Arab NATO. Compared to past coalitions, the new alliance will be even weaker and lack effectiveness in the face of the Resistance Front and the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he said.,Iran and Israel cut ties in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution of 1979, and regularly accuse one another of being the region’s biggest supporter of terrorism, violence, and instability.,Joe Biden will arrive in Israel on Wednesday as part of a much-anticipated regional trip which will also take him to the occupied West Bank and Saudi Arabia. The four-day visit will be his first tour of the region as president.,Biden: Saudi Arabia Trip Important for Countering Russia, China & Keeping US Leadership Afloat10 July, 04:13 GMT,* Terrorist groups outlawed in Russia and many other countries.。　　最近的乙二醇堪称市场的明星品种，8月6日以来涨势如虹，得益于其基本面强劲支撑。　　支撑因素分析　　最关键的影响因素仍是海峡持续封锁，导致中东特别是沙特的货物难以运出，我国乙二醇进口自3月份以来持续下滑，预计9月份进口仍难有大的恢复，10月份进口需要看随后地缘缓解后是否有货物运出。　　乙二醇供应缺失大于需求增量，尽管聚酯前期开工率低于去年，但长丝开工仍有韧性。　　库存持续去化至近几年同期低位水平，偏低的库存进一步提高了价格弹性。　　临近交割月时，供应特别是进口短期内大幅恢复概率较小，较低的库存以及终端的开工韧性导致短期乙二醇矛盾难解，吸引资金大幅入场。

二 | 　　后市展望　　后期来看，近月乙二醇的矛盾只能通过挤压需求来实现硬平衡，同时配合国内供应略有边际恢复。经测算，聚酯开工需要降到77-78%左右才能实现乙二醇短期的相对平衡。

三 | 进入9月份，终端瓶片和短纤已经有装置预期停车，同时受利润和原料的制约。　　未来海峡仍是基本面关注的重点，隔夜海峡局势出现一定的缓解。如果乙二醇进口恢复顺利，做多的关键因素将消失，甚至逐步进入过剩格局，但是如果未来海峡问题仍存在一定的反复，预计短期价格在悲观情绪释放后仍存在一定的支撑。　　乙二醇库存　　编辑：武宇杰　　审核：赵洪虎/F0303315、Z0012132/　　复核：于心悦　　报告完成日期：2026年8月26日　　交易咨询业务资格：证监许可〔2012〕38号责任编辑：李铁民。

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